future of israel economy
http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf. In return, Damascus receives recognition of its control over Syrian Kurdish territories (albeit granting local bodies some autonomy), an invitation to return to the Arab League, and some Gulf funding for Syrian reconstruction efforts. 2023 The Times of Israel , All Rights Reserved. 2012. https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol17/iss2/art10/. In its latest innovation index, Bloomberg ranks Israel as one of the world's top five countries for R & D, along with Finland, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden. Click the link in that email to complete registration so you can comment. As a neutral scenario could not be focused, readable, and useful if it lists every development in a given country or region even over the course of a single day, the focus and priorities of the scenario must be limited in scope and defined by the perspective from which it is written. During this time, Iran gravitates away from Europe and toward the orbits of Russia and China. Also, Russias regional standing is largely guaranteed by the Assad regime, limiting its room to maneuver in Syria. How climate change could exacerbate conflict in the Middle East. The Atlantic Council. Introduction The achievements of the Israeli economy since 1948 have been immense. At first glance everything looks great. 12. What this suggests is the importance of considering in scenarios, or in the analysis of the implications of scenarios, what we might call counter-trends or anti-trends that could emerge instead of, or even alongside, an expected trend. Rising Sea Levels Threaten Egypts Alexandria. VOA News. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. Leo Blanken. (ret.) But as Europe has discovered, renewables . His research focuses on U.S. foreign policy, the U.S.-Israel relationship, Israeli strategy vis--vis Iran, and the Yemeni civil war. With the drawdown of U.S. influence and presence, the Middle East could become an arena for strategic competition between Russia and China. Middle East Demographics of 2030. The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. Elevated inflation will slow disposable income and private consumption. Following the escalation of a dispute between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan regarding a number of core issues for both countries, including the status of Kashmir, Riyadh reduces the number of Pakistani workers allowed into the kingdom. f) Societal and Economic Prospects: There are no indications that provide reason to expect a significant improvement in the fundamental social-economic problems of the Middle East that contributed to the political unrest in 2010 and onward;26 there remains a serious relative lack of human capital and the publics faith in government institutions continues to decline.27 Attempts at internal economic, social, and political reforms throughout the region are undercut by entrenched elites and ingrained practices. November 2019. https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/social-capital-public-. Plessner, Yakir. However, it soon becomes apparent that the new government retains the ancien rgimes hegemonic ambitions. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. As part of this process, Iran agrees to the full integration of Shia militias into Iraqs armed forces, though Tehran retains considerable indirect levers of influence in the country. In 2028, the reformists lose the elections in Iran as their diplomatic endeavors failed to significantly improve the countrys economic situation. One of Washingtons key aims in the Middle East is limiting Chinese and (secondarily) Russian influence. They are intended to highlight the reality that over the course of the next decade Israels strategic environment could undergo fundamental changes. The swift development of a COVID-19 vaccine and international efforts to produce and distribute it leads to a quick recovery of the global economy along with renewed demand for oil and gas. The many points of contention between the great powers hinder their ability to prevent regional conflicts from erupting. Second, when thinking about the future, it is important to consider the duality of developments. 22. Coronavirus (COVID-19) In 2004, given the deep U.S. involvement in two wars in the Middle East and the then-recent experience of the 9/11 attacks, the NIC report described political Islam as having significant global impact. While there can be little doubt that more radical currents of Islam maintain some continued impact, their lack of broader appeal to either populations or states make them negligible factors in the context of the global order. Mapping the Global Future. National Intelligence Council. November 10, 2020. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/middle-east-economy/. The factors influencing the future can be identified through methods known as trends impact and horizon scanning.5 Trends impact focuses primarily on identifying existing and continuing currents that could influence the future. Emerging technologies: New challenges to global stability. The Atlantic Council. In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu The newly crowned King Khaled seeks to change the kingdoms priorities by reducing its regional involvement and focusing the bulk of its resources on domestic modernization. The trigger can be external, demographic, technological, ideological, or any other potential development capable of having a major impact if the weak signal were to become markedly stronger. Joseph Zeira takes readers from those early days to today, describing how Israel's economic development occurred amid intense fighting with the Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries. This leads to growing tensions between Russia and Turkey and rising American support for Ankara as a counterweight to Russian influence in the Middle East. The global slowdown is set to weaken demand from Israels trading partners. http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf. March 30, 2020. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/us-policy-middle-ea. Intelligence Analysis: Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes. (In Hebrew) https://www.intelligence-research.org.il/userfiles/banners/Itai.Brun.pdf. However, it is worth noting that because these camps are composed of individual actors with interests that do not always entirely overlap with one another, hedging and limited inter-camp cooperation occur when interests dictate. This variable is strongly correlated with (a) the future of competition between the great powers, (b) rivalry among regional powers in MENA, (c) counter-terrorism, and (d) nuclear proliferation. Accessed February 18, 2021. https://fragilestatesindex.org. This scenario depicts how making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition. He received his BA in Middle Eastern Studies from Princeton University and his MA from Tel Aviv University. Deterioration of the regional economy/order might bring opportunities to diminish major military threats to Israel at reduced costs or increase its regional footprint through deeper intra-regional cooperation. The two major variables that the authors used to map out the potential futures, due to their direct impact or correlation with numerous trends listed above, are as follows: 1) U.S. readiness to play a strong and shaping role in the Middle East, including the investment of resources, manpower, and political capital to support its allies and confront destabilizing actors. Doing so helps ensure against missing potentially important implications that the scenario developers can overlook if they are too close to the subject matter. Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West. In addition, the regional economies will face considerable challenges in recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, which inflicted severe damage on key industries. 1. One need look no further than the World Economic Forums report on global risks published in January 2020.1 It assessed the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak or instability in the global energy market as relatively unlikely, even though both ended up happening less than two months after the reports publication. Mapping the Global Future,12 which was published in 2004 as part of the 2020 Project by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), was used as a case study. 11. Israel is back on the brink The aim of examining futures of the past is certainly not to point out what some might view as errors. Furthermore, China is hostile toward the new cartel, which imposes additional costs on its energy imports and seeks to limit its influence in Central Asia. Fragility in the World 2020. Fragile States Index. May 14, 2019. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-climate-change-cou. The widespread public criticism of the regime caused the military to announce President al-Sisis resignation, beginning a long period of political unrest throughout the country. Examples of trends present today that have not changed much since the NIC report was published more than 15 years ago include the power of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system and the strong global commitment to prevent countries in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons (and none have nuclearized since the publication of the report). It seems it might grow a bit slower than forecasted, but it'll still be pretty good. "Between 1991 and 2000, Israel's annual venture-capital outlays, nearly all private, rose nearly 60-fold, from $58 million to $3.3 billion; companies launched by Israeli venture funds rose from 100 to 800; and Israel's information-technology revenues rose from $1.6 billion to $12.5 billion. d) Proliferation of Dangerous Technologies: The unraveling of arms control agreements increases the risk of nuclear proliferation,23 while the largely unregulated proliferation of precision-guided munitions has enabled the emergence of strategic non-nuclear threats in the region. If they crash the economy and bring it to the ground, these i**ots will Nicolae Sptaru on LinkedIn: Powell / FED decisions in the following months will decide the future of Given the tendency to underestimate continuity, in moments when radical change feels imminent it is worth recalling that much often remains the same over time., Drawing up different scenarios has been described by Brig. BEIJING Israel aspires to become the world's 15th largest economy by 2025, Economy and Industry Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday, arguing that Israel's power depends on its economic growth . Laborers from poorer countries in the Arab world are then offered work visas to Saudi Arabia to supplement the foreign workforce and the volume of remittances to countries such as Egypt and Yemen increases. China increases its support for Egypt as a means to reduce Russian influence in the country and in Africa more broadly. This can be instructive in highlighting the challenges of scenario-building that subsequent efforts by the Government of Israel or others should take into account or even correct for when outlining and evaluating possible futures. Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. Development of scenarios is only a starting point for strategic planning, and the latter issue is not dealt with in this article. Please note that the posts on The Blogs are contributed by third parties. 26. Traders Union has released a list of reputable online stock brokers to go with in 2022, but there are also other options that can be utilized as long as investors do their due diligence. Iraq and Syria remain theaters of low intensity conflict between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran-backed forces on the other; these confrontations are characterized by recurring crises and increasing lethality. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was predicted for 2023 despite boosts in the economy through higher consumer spending, a surge in exports and a growing investing market. MIT Sloan Management Review defines a weak signal as follows: A seemingly random or disconnected piece of information that at first appears to be background noise but can be recognized as part of a significant pattern by viewing it through a different frame or connecting it with other pieces of information. From Paul J.H. Total American assistance to Israel, from its establishment in 1949 up to 2016, amounts to approximately $125 billion, a whopping sum, making Israel the largest beneficiary of American aid in. What we determined as the most important and persistent trends to consider, which appear poised to influence the Middle East over the next decade, are: a) The Decline of Unipolarity: The results of this ongoing global transition from unipolarity to a bipolar (U.S.-China) or multipolar (U.S.-China-Russia) world will include: growing challenges to the existing international system;21 intensification of great power competition and its projection into the MENA region;22 U.S. efforts to reduce its military footprint in the Middle East in favor of the Pivot to Asia; an expanded Chinese footprint around the globe (mainly through commerce and infrastructure projects); and Russian attempts to reestablish itself as a powerbroker in the region. He is currently a consultant to several ministries. Throughout the years 2026-27, Turkey and the Gulf states take steps to undermine the success of the new nuclear deal due to Irans continued meddling in the region. As coalition ploughs ahead with plans to shackle judiciary and uncertainty sweeps local market, individuals and . e) Growing Demographic Pressures: The population of the Middle East is expected to rise by about 20%,24 to 581 million people, by 2030. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars opinions are their own. We are proposing a strategy to deal with the main factors that can be influenced by government action and which have an effect on the productivity gap between Israel and the benchmark OECD economies. Total exports of natural gas from Israel in 2021 increased by 68% compared to 2020. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was. Changes in the socio-economic stability of states in the region may redraw the map of regional and even extra-regional alliances. David Passig, a renowned futurist at Bar-Ilan University, speaks about the future of Israel's Economy. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was predicted for 2023 despite boosts in the economy through higher consumer. The Davos Scenario14 presented in the 2004 report is viewed as fairly optimistic and mutually beneficial in fact one of the concerns cited that caused sleepless nights was financial troubles for China.15 Nonetheless, the shift of the political consensus in the U.S. from a Liberal to a more Realist foreign policy viewpoint has made this somewhat optimistic outcome appear quite threatening when viewed through the lens of relative U.S. decline.16 Scenario developers and analysts would do well to consider: under what future conditions would the benefits and risks of our scenarios be perceived differently than we view them today? Four years of Modi's government have transformed India's prospects drastically and the . 31. By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a Senior Research Fellow at the INSS, specializing in Gulf politics and security. 2018 Middle East Institute All Rights Reserved | Accessibility Policy |Built by Social Driver. Infiltrations from Jordan oblige Israel to build an extensive fence to protect its eastern border. The reading beat market expectations and put the overall 2022 expansion at 6.4%. MENA Generation 2030. Unicef. It grew 4% last year, and GDP per capita grew 2%. In the second half of the decade, sporadic violence by Shia militias in Iraq spills over into the Gulf, resulting in attacks on critical infrastructure including oil pumping stations, refineries, and pipelines. Please try again or choose an option below. The rates of employment cannot continue to grow at this rate in the future due to the expected saturation in employment rates among the non-ultra-Orthodox Jewish population. The economy is among the fastest-growing in the industrialized world. Order from Chaos Increasing interest rates and lower stock market valuations will weigh on investment. 19. February 27, 2007. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636680710727516/f. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economys strengths and weakness, including a description of the areas that are in need of specific and implementable programs and continuous measurement of progress. Charles Roxburg. Middle East Economies: Dim Light at the End of the Tunnel. Institute for National Security Studies. But scenarios built only around such an assumption pay insufficient attention to any number of factors that are more representative of continuity and are potentially just as impactful as that which is changing. Previously, he had a 21-year career in the IDF, mainly in the Israeli Defense Intelligence (Aman). 18. In 2020 and 2021, the volume of international tourism in Israel has declined remarkably. Bringing. For those who might contend that some aspects of the futures sketched out seem unlikely or unrealistic, we acknowledge that they may not appear probable, but given the developments of 2020 we felt entitled if not obligated to abide by Herman Kahns advice to think the unthinkable.. 27. Also found in similar projects such as: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ME2020.pdf. It has also cancelled the contract for Russia to build it nuclear reactors. First, what quickly becomes apparent in assessments of the future is the tendency of authors, regardless of when they are writing,13 to include assumptions that their subject is in a unique state of flux. March 7, 2023 29:06 Ron. Further distraction of the U.S. from Middle Eastern issues will provide greater room for Russia and China to maneuver, reduce the military and political constraints on other actors in the region like Turkey and Iran, and potentially allow for the proliferation of nuclear technologies; deeper U.S. involvement may rein in regional struggles and diminish the probability of the appearance of a new nuclear power in the region. In addition to these major trends, we see a number of potential game-changer developments that could emerge over the next decade, partly influenced by the trends but also partly independent of them. March 2, 2020. https://www.wita.org/atp-research/the-rules-based-multilateral-order-a-. How Israel fares in this realm will depend on investment in formalized long-term planning mechanisms, vesting them with authority, and ensuring that the decisionmakers at various levels allocate a significant portion of their time to planning for a range of potential alternative futures. The current inflation should prompt the Bank of Israel to impose rate hikes. The poverty rate is projected to decline to 26.7% in 2022, and then to further gradually decrease to 26.1% by 2024. Making great power competition the primary prism of the U.S. policy in the region could destabilize its traditional alliances and put it in a position of disadvantage in that very competition.. Israel reoccupies Gaza in one of those incidents and then withdraws after a year as part of a negotiated agreement that allows the PA to manage Gaza only to see Hamas retake control of the enclave after several months. The COVID-19 crisis threatens to aggravate Israels long-standing challenges of high poverty, especially among the Ultra-Orthodox and Arab Israelis, and wide productivity disparity between its vibrant high-tech sector and more traditional and sheltered sectors, which employ most of the workforce and account for most of the productivity shortfall vis--vis the best performing OECD countries. 1763 N St. NW, Washington D.C. 20036. January 4, 2021. https://www.inss.org.il/publication/climate-change-and-national-securit. Accessed February 19, 2021. https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/futuresthin. Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, Assessment, and Selection Criteria. German Development Institute. He reveals how the . For international customers: The center is staffed and provides answers on Sundays through Thursdays between 7AM and 14PM Israel time Toll Free number 1-800-448-9291 Telephone +972-3-761-9056 Fax . Accessed February 18, 2021. https://www.worldwater.io. Justin Doebe is the President of Nevelis Media. Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce interesting research. Science Direct. The Future of Israel's Economy. The scenarios are exploratory, rather than predictive or normative,20 meaning that they aim to answer the question of what can happen rather than what will or what should. The current inflation should prompt the Bank of Israel to impose rate hikes. According to IMF estimates, the unemployment rate will decrease further to 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024. For a listing of MEI donors, please clickhere. Yohanan Plesner, President of the Israel Democracy Institute, opened the first session on establishing national, long-term strategies: "Rather than initiatives that curb the power of gatekeepers, legal advisors, and the Supreme Court, we must implement effective structural changes that tackle the . The speedy global economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is exploited by the U.S. to increase pressure on China and reduce commitments in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The U.S. bipartisan consensus regarding Israel continues to erode, as hardline Democrats and Republicans grow disillusioned with traditional alliances. The Shia minority in the Gulf states are incited by Iranian propaganda directed at them, and Yemens Houthis conduct frequent strikes targeting Gulf states infrastructure with advanced missiles and UAVs. This could be the result of the rising importance of factors that are today considered marginal, or chain reactions resulting from game changers. The scenarios are intentionally replete with details in order to provide greater texture and encourage lively conversation and debate about the future; they are intended to both reflect and to test reality. Schoemaker and George S. Day. 28. Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures, IV. At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. In the second half of the decade, Israel capitalizes on the relative weakness of Egypt and the Gulf states in order to expand cooperation with them. The U.S. and the EU are not involved in the process. Natan Sachs The economy was expected to grow 3.5% this year. Robert A. Manning. Any errors in this work are the authors alone. Russia, through its security services and military contractors, cooperates with Egypt in Libya and other areas of interest. Finally, hard-won negotiated assets such as the Abraham Accords or a better deal with Iran might disintegrate quickly because of the complexity and inter-connectivity of regional security problems. Protests and the Future of Democracy in Israel March 9, 2023 34:50 A New Child Labor Crisis in America March 8, 2023 23:35 Who Blew Up the Nord Stream Pipelines? Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for Scenario development is one of the most popular methodologies to investigate the future, and various methods have been developed to build and map scenarios.3 The basic concept evolved from business practitioners, with the most famous method being the matrix introduced by Royal Dutch Shell and refined later in Global Business Network (GBN). Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as interesting research 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. February 2007. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of. Eric Brewer. In updated projections last month, the Bank of Israel said it forecasts Israel's GDP growth at 6% in 2022, and 3% in 2023, as the country like everywhere continues to grapple with inflation. Annual economic growth in Israel of 3.5% over the past decade has largely been the result of an increase in employment rates, while the growth rate in productivity has been very low. Brookings experts on the implications of COVID-19 for the Middle East and North Africa The U.S. refrains from directly confronting Iran out of concern that it will be drawn into another decades-long quagmire. Michael Singh. Learning from the best practices of those who have done work in this vein before us, we concluded that it would be foolhardy to try to calculate the likelihood of any particular event or scenario. For example, the NIC correctly noted that globalization could lead to the rise of populism and pointed to Latin America as the likely place for that to emerge. The analysis points to three main policy related factors that potentially explain the existing gap: (1) low levels of public investment and capital stock, in particular in transportation infrastructure and information and communications technology (ICT) infrastructure; (2) shortage of human capital, primarily among individuals who do not obtain academic education; and (3) heavy regulatory and bureaucratic burden on the business sector. He had a 21-year career in the process Middle Eastern and African Studies # x27 ; ll be. Foreign policy, the U.S.-Israel relationship, Israeli strategy vis -- vis Iran, and GDP per capita 2... 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